Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer and Margot Robbie as Barbie
Julien De Rosa | AFP | Getty Images; Stuart C. Wilson | Getty Images
This weekend at the box office is all about atomic bombs and blonde bombs.
When two major movies from two different studios hit theaters at the same time, it’s typically a ticketing competition. That is not the case Warner Bros.” “Barbie” and Universals Oppenheimer.
Called “Barbenheimer”, the double release of these would-be blockbusters is more complementary, with many moviegoers plan a trip with dual features to cinemas
“Since we knew these two movies were going to premiere on the same weekend, it was an instant pop culture phenomenon,” said Erik Davis, general manager at Fandango. “It’s been the most anticipated weekend of the year.”
The two films couldn’t be more different, with “Barbie” centering on the iconic Mattel doll navigating life beyond Barbie Land, and “Oppenheimer” documenting how the father of the atomic bomb created the first nuclear weapons.
Still, audiences are drawn to both titles. This excitement is much needed for the domestic box office after a series of recently released big budget films fell short of expectations.
Heading into the weekend, “Barbie” is expected to rake in at least $90 million in domestic ticket sales, with some box office analysts predicting the film could gross more than $140 million. Meanwhile, “Oppenheimer” seems destined to snag between $40 million and $60 million.
The two films could collectively generate $200 million during their opening frame. With additional ticket sales from “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” and “Sound of Freedom,” this could be the highest-grossing weekend of the year so far.
Major movie chains have indicated that ticket sales are strong for both films this weekend, and additional shows have been added to meet demand.
Some 40,000 members of the AMC Theater loyalty program have purchased tickets to see Barbie and Oppenheimer on the same day, and the National Association of Theater Owners predict that more than 200,000 moviegoers will see the two films the same day.
“This weekend’s anticipation was very high for both ‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer,'” said Jeffrey Kaufman, chief content officer at Malco Theaters. “Media attention and the public embrace of the #Barbenheimer tag show awareness and excitement for both releases.”
And much of the appeal comes from the films’ celebrated filmmakers.
Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”, “Little Women”) has only a few films to her name as a director, but she has already earned her place among the famous Hollywood authors. Her films are about women and contain witty dialogues and a strong emotional core. Gerwig is one of only seven women nominated for Best Director at the Academy Awards.
The public first got a taste of Gerwig’s take on the iconic Barbie doll in December with a minute-long teaser trailer that spoofed Stanley Kubrick’s “2001: A Space Odyssey.” This wouldn’t be your typical Barbie movie.
Future trailers showcased the bubblegum pink Barbieland that kids and kids at heart have known for over 60 years and revealed the movie’s plot. After an existential crisis, Barbie (Margot Robbie) and Ken (Ryan Gosling) head to the real world for answers.
Then there’s Christopher Nolan, who has cultivated an ardent fandom through movies like ‘Memento’, ‘The Prestige’, ‘The Dark Knight’, ‘Interstellar’ and ‘Dunkirk’.
Nolan’s films are known for their complex storytelling, bombastic sound and visuals designed for the biggest screens.
“Oppenheimer” is a three-hour opus that centers on physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer (Cillian Murphy) as he works relentlessly to develop the first atomic bomb during World War II.
“‘Barbie’ emerged as the frontrunner to claim the top spot this weekend with its massive brand appeal that appeals to an underserved female audience, but ‘Oppenheimer’ should have a long fuse to burn, as Christopher Nolan’s films typically do,” said Shawn Robbins, principal analyst at BoxOffice.com
“Oppenheimer” gets a boost from premium format ticket sales as audiences choose to watch the movie on the biggest screen possible. Nolan’s film is expected to command about 70% of all premium showings this weekend, including screens like IMAX, Dolby Cinema, and ScreenX. These tickets average about $17 each, according to EntTelligence data.
General admission tickets, including premium and standard digital screenings, are expected to average about $14 each.
For “Barbie,” the overall average ticket price is a bit lower, around $12, because the movie will play in fewer premium auditoriums over the weekend.
These two movies come in theaters after a slew of adult-oriented blockbusters that have underperformed at the box office.
“Unfortunately, the last three blockbusters – ‘Flash’, ‘Indiana Jones’ and ‘Mission Impossible’ – were all underperformers by forecasts,” Kaufman said. “This trend, along with the news cycle coverage of the Guild strikes and the loss of cast member availability for promotion freezes, may dampen things.”
“Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” probably won’t take a hit due to lack of publicity. The marketing campaigns of both films were in full swing just before the strike, and both casts were able to participate, at least in part, in film premieres.
Viral videos of the pink-clad “Barbie” actors promoting the movie and discussing their “Kenergy” have been circling social media for weeks, along with bubblegum-colored merchandise tie-ins and a Airbnb Dream house.
The marketing for “Oppenheimer” is a little more muted in comparison, with actors and director Nolan touting the recreation of a nuclear blast without the use of CGI and the importance of exploring Oppenheimer’s life.
“Exhibition navigates a very nuanced balancing act involving the programming of two incredibly high-profile films starring ‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer,'” said Steve Buck of film data company EntTelligence. “The winner is simple: the moviegoer.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
