The number of people with diabetes worldwide will more than double over the next three decades, reaching a total of 1.3 billion people by 2050. That is one of the most important findings from our study on the global burden of diabetes recently published in The Lancet.
We analyzed and synthesized all available epidemiological data on diabetes burden – defined as health decline due to diabetes captured by the number of cases, disease severity and deaths.
Our study spanned more than 27,000 data sources to provide estimates of diabetes prevalence, disability, and deaths for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Using a modeling tool that accounts for sociodemographic factors and obesity, we projected diabetes prevalence through 2050.
We also estimate the share of diabetes disability and death attributable to specific risk factors related to obesity, diet, physical activity, environment or occupation, tobacco use and alcohol use.
This analysis is part of the larger Research on global disease burden, injuries and risk factorswhich since 1990 has quantified the decline in health caused by hundreds of diseases, injuries and risk factors. Thousands of health experts and researchers around the world contribute to and use estimates from this research, which is constantly updated.
Our team predicted that every country is expected to experience an increase in the number of diabetes cases by 2050. In the regions expected to be hardest hit – including North Africa and the Middle East, and Pacific island nations – there are countries where as many as 1 in 5 people could be living with diabetes by 2050 if current trends continue. Among the elderly in these regions, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to be even higher.
While both Diabetes type 1 and type 2 are characterized by high blood sugar, also called glucose, Type 2 is a largely preventable disease that occurs as a result of gradual insulin resistance and is commonly diagnosed in adults. Type 1conversely, is an autoimmune disease in which the body cannot produce insulin; it usually develops during childhood or adolescence.
The vast majority of new diabetes cases over the next three decades are expected to be of type 2. We expect that the two main causes will be the aging of the population and the increase in obesity. By 2021, obesity was the leading risk factor for type 2 diabetes, accounting for more than half of disability and death from the disease.
Why it matters
People with diabetes have a significantly higher risk of developing and dying of other serious illnesses, including diabetes ischemic heart disease and stroke, and of complications such as sight loss and foot ulcers.
This exacerbates the pressure of diabetes on healthcare systems, necessitating more extensive screening and management. However, this was shown by a study less than 1 in 10 people with diabetes in low- and middle-income countries have access to comprehensive diabetes treatment.
Based on an abundance of research, the two main drivers of the projected increase in diabetes cases will be aging and obesity. As people age, their bodies change ability to regulate changes in blood sugar levels.
Moreover, studies indicate that obesity will continue to rise. No program has been shown yet sustainable reduction of obesity at the population level.
To reverse this trend in obesity rates, an approach that focuses on both the behavioral and structural factors associated with maintaining a healthy diet And getting enough exercise will be necessary.
What other research is being done
While our research reports on diabetes trends and risk factors over time by age, gender and geography, there are other factors that provide clues as to why diabetes disproportionately affects certain populations.
Research shows that there are many complex social and economic dynamics at play when it comes to trying to live a healthy lifestyle. Low income, low level of educationAnd live in urban areas are all associated with a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes.
Studies show that too Type 2 diabetes disproportionately affects indigenous populations around the world, largely due to colonization and the resulting disruptions to their traditional way of life.
The rapid increase in the number of people with diabetes that we project in our research does not have to become a reality. Understanding how these trends relate to how people live is the first step to changing the course of this disease in the decades to come.
Lauryn StaffordFellow in Health Metrics, university of washington And Liane Ongprincipal investigator at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, university of washington
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.