PARIS, June 18 (Reuters) – US aircraft maker Boeing (BA.N) has slightly raised its annual 20-year forecast for delivery of new jet aircraft, propelled by the strong narrow-body market fueled by demand from low-cost carriers .
Boeing expects airlines to buy 42,595 jets from now through 2042, up from 41,170 in last year’s previous 20-year forecast.
The latest forecast – released Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow – is still lower than the 43,610 new jets predicted as part of the 2021 market outlook, which took into account Russian demand for aircraft.
Boeing expects narrow-body jets such as the 737 MAX or European rival Airbus’ (AIR.PA) A320neo family to dominate aircraft deliveries, with 32,420 single-aisle jets to be delivered until 2042.
That demand will be driven by low-cost airlines, which will double the size of their current fleets, Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, said during a briefing with reporters ahead of the report’s release.
Deliveries from now to 2042 are also expected to include 7,440 widebody aircraft, 1,810 regional jets and 925 freighters. About half of new jet deliveries will replace older models, while the other half will grow airline fleets, Boeing predicts.
“The end of the recovery has gone largely as we expected, with a few different nuances and dynamics,” such as a drop in demand for regional jets compared to last year as interest in narrow-body aircraft increases, Hulst said.
Boeing expects the global aircraft fleet to nearly double over the next 20 years, from about 24,500 jets in 2022 to 48,600 in 2042. Last year’s outlook predicted a global fleet of 43,470 aircraft by 2041.
The company also slightly increased expected growth in passenger transport across the sector from 3.8% to 4%. And while the airfreight market is “taking a bit of a breather,” the trade’s estimated annual growth of 3% over the next 20 years will be a tailwind for future demand, Hulst said.
“I think we’ll see again how resilient the demand for air freight is as it’s consistently growing at around 3.5% to 4%,” he said.
While China’s air traffic continued to be under pressure in 2022, Hulst said Boeing remains “very optimistic” about China, which will make up 20% of the market, while the rest of Asia will make up another 22% of demand.
Airbus, which released its own market forecast on Wednesday, also raised its delivery forecasts, estimating that 40,850 new jets would be handed over to customers through 2042.
Reporting by Valerie Insinna; edited by Jonathan Oatis