So when Justice entered the Senate race on Thursday, it highlighted the core of McConnell’s 2024 strategy. After several Trump-inspired candidates fell short last fall and denied the GOP the majority, the Kentucky Republican hopes to implement a Senate campaign plan separate from the presidential race. That means candidates who can win even with the former president will have to get back on the ballot next year.
McConnell’s gamble underscores the reality that, with the presidential primaries still underway, he is probably Trump’s biggest opponent in the Republican Party right now. According to confidants, he hasn’t changed his mind about Trump’s behavior after the 2020 election, and he sees Trump’s nomination as complicating the task of beating Joe Biden next year.
But McConnell, true to form, doesn’t let emotion or his low view of Trump get in the way of the task. The Senate GOP leader doesn’t talk about Trump publicly and does so little in private.
That’s despite Trump mercilessly going after McConnell and unleashing racist attacks on his wife, former Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao. And despite McConnell raging Trump as “practically and morally responsible” for the January 6 riot at the Capitol.
“McConnell spoke very clearly about… his huge disagreements with the [former] president. And I think the personal attacks on his wife, Elaine Chao, really pissed off Senator McConnell,” said Senator Shelley Moore Capito (RW.Va.), a member of McConnell’s leadership team.
“Sen. McConnell is just looking ahead,” Capito added. “He’s not really focused on that past disagreement. We all know where he stands.”
The Kentucky Republican sees a path back to the Senate majority through the red states of West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, races the party can win even with Trump at the top of the list. And while he has no intention of influencing the GOP presidential primaries, he considers the Senate and State Senate races to be within his control.
When asked about Trump this week, McConnell said, “My main focus and most of my colleagues are primarily focused on trying to get the Senate.” It was his second straight weekly evasion of Trump, the first being a deadpan response to the former president’s denunciation: “I may have hit my head, but I didn’t hit that hard,” he said, referring to a recent concussion.
It’s vintage McConnell, and the very attitude that made him the longest-serving Senate Party leader of all time — even after Senator Rick Scott (R-Fla.) took on the first-ever challenge for his leadership position. But McConnell’s end to Trump carries a political risk: His conference, including Scott’s replacement as Senate campaign chairman, has begun to coalesce around the former president — who has 10 Senate recommendations, with more to come more on.
That means that if McConnell were to speak out against Trump, he would drive a wedge within the Senate GOP. He could also fuel Trump.
“I don’t think it generally makes sense to give President Trump a target. He can partially burn the base by finding someone to attack, and the best way to keep President Trump from getting ammunition is to remain silent,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who opposed the bid. of Trump in 2024. “He called him an old crow and leader McConnell said, ‘Yeah, I’m an old crow.'”
McConnell spent the past two years helping to build a separate GOP identity from Trump, blessing bipartisan deals on gun safety and infrastructure that otherwise drew the ire of conservatives and often the former president himself. That occasionally collaborative bipartisan spirit surprised senators in both parties, who were accustomed to McConnell’s “Grim Reaper” personality of blocking Democrats and thwarting judicial choices.
What McConnell won’t do, however, is pick a fight with the GOP frontrunner, whom he clearly doesn’t want to win for the nomination. Senator Lindsey Graham (RS.C.), who supports Trump, said that “Mitch is trying to choose his fight wisely.”
“He understands that Trump’s drama is unlikely to benefit day-to-day activities in the Senate,” Graham said of McConnell. “Each person in charge will have to make some decisions that are unpopular with their base.”
And while it may seem surprising, McConnell is fine with Senate National Republican Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.) supporting Trump; he even got a heads up ahead of Monday’s announcement.
Daines is close to the Trump family and plays a more interventionist role in primaries than his predecessor, so even Senate Republicans tired of the former president believe the Montanan’s move could ultimately help them get more eligible candidates in their biggest races next year.
Still, a Trump nomination could complicate the task of winning the next tier of Senate races in states won by Biden in 2020: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But after the 2022 debacle won the Democrats a seat, the GOP leader and most of his colleagues are focused on ousting Manchin, as are Senators Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), more than anything. .
“The point with Mitch is he wants a majority in the Senate,” said a Republican senator who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity. As for McConnell’s repeated defenses against the former president, this senator recalled a McConnell mantra: “Just because a reporter asks a question, doesn’t mean you have to answer it.”
And given the volume and intensity of Trump’s attacks on McConnell, it’s fair to assume that McConnell’s endorsement probably wouldn’t go very far in a Republican presidential primary anyway. It would even hurt his ability to get the Senate majority, another confidant said: “He believes his involvement in the presidential cycle makes it harder for candidates to win. Not easier.”
“The practical reality of winning the Senate is probably completely divorced from what happens in a presidential primary because of the card,” this McConnell ally added. “If Trump is the nominee, I don’t know what will happen, but I can probably tell you he won’t lose West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.”
McConnell’s position won’t necessarily earn him praise for bravery from anti-Trump Republicans or Democrats who were impressed by McConnell’s lucid and critical assessment of Trump’s conduct on January 6. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who has served with McConnell since 1997, simply said it is “normal” for McConnell to remain silent about Trump.
“I hope he lends his voice to those who disapprove of what Trump stands for,” Durbin said optimistically.
But it ties in with the majority leader’s seven-term legacy: he wields political power where he can, to deny Democrats a Supreme Court seat or force a confrontation over the debt ceiling, while generally not fighting chooses which he cannot win. A tit for tat with Trump is politically unsustainable for McConnell.
That doesn’t mean he can be completely hands-off. If Trump supported Mooney instead of Justice, it could complicate even McConnell’s best plans.