But the House GOP leader — who felt compelled to remain neutral during the primary so as not to trap his own members — wasn’t ready to do so. To appease Trump, McCarthy made him a promise, according to a source close to Trump and familiar with the conversation: the House would vote to drop the two charges against the former president. And — as McCarthy would communicate through aides later that same day — they would do so before August recess.
That vow — made on a reflex to save his own ass — may have bought McCarthy some time, avoiding a public war with the man who almost single-handedly rehabilitated his entire career and ensured he won the gavel in January. But it has also gotten McCarthy into trouble — and Trump World intends to hold him to his promise.
Several moderate Republicans in the House don’t want to back down on Trump’s accusations – special the charges stemming from the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. (While only 10 of their GOP colleagues voted with the Democrats to impeach Trump after the January 6 attack, several others wanted to but were too concerned about threats to their offices and families to take the plunge.)
But if McCarthy perseveres, those members have no choice. Given the speaker’s weak position with Trump allies in the House and the threat of his impeachment looming with every move, McCarthy has no choice but to bow to the former president’s whims — even if it means placing vulnerable frontliners in a precarious political position.
The speaker has denied making any such promise to Trump at all, according to a Hill aide. From McCarthy’s point of view, he only indicated that he would discuss the matter with his members, putting him and Trump on a collision course.
McCarthy’s own leadership team is divided on the issue.
House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (RN.Y.), who many believe will want to be Trump’s running mate if he wins the nomination, has pushed for a strikeout vote. In late June, she teamed up with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on a resolution that would have cleared Trump of the impeachment charges.
But at a recent leadership rally, moderate Republicans bounced back on the idea, arguing that any removal vote would be toxic to re-elections for members in districts won by Biden — especially given that polls suggest most Americans disapprove of Trump’s actions on Jan. 6.
It’s also unclear whether a strikeout vote would have enough support to pass the House, given the GOP’s slim five-seat majority. Two incumbent Republicans — Representatives David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) — voted to impeach Trump, and they are unlikely to support the removal.
Then, in addition to the skittish moderates who prefer not to vote, there’s the group of constitutionally minded conservatives — who, we’re told, have privately expressed skepticism that the House has the constitutional authority to obliterate a president’s impeachment.
Some senior Republicans — even those who support Trump — worry that a removal vote would reveal divisions in their ranks and only embarrass Trump if the bid to vote and loses.
“I am for Trump,” a senior GOP member tells Playbook. “The problem is, if you have an expungement, and it goes to ground and fails — which it probably will — the media will treat it like it’s a third impeachment, and it will show divisions among the Republican ranks. It is a enormous strategic risk.”
For now, some on McCarthy’s leadership team are under the impression that no vote will take place, with one person calling it “too divisive.” And although McCarthy has done it publicly supported the pressuresenior Republicans speculate that his words were merely an attempt to curry favor with the former president.
“I think it’s more of a message to please Trump,” said a senior GOP aide.
Strike proponents argue that despite members’ personal reservations about the vote, they will fall into line when McCarthy puts the resolution to the floor. It’s not a distant theory: Most congressional Republicans will go to great lengths to avoid anything that could be seen as a public rebuke of Trump.
Regardless of the likelihood of passage, Trump World intends to hold McCarthy accountable for his pledge. While the former president knows he can’t hold back the myriad impeachments expected to come his way, he believes the House has the power to erase the taint of impeachment from his name.
That vote could become even more important to him given that Special Counsel Jack Smith appears willing to criminally prosecute Trump for his role in the January 6 attack.
We’re told Trump is raising the issue every call he has with McCarthy, urging the speaker when he will bring expungement to the floor. However, McCarthy has already pushed the timeline back. Perhaps realizing how difficult such a vote will be, he recently told Trump’s team that the House will vote at the end of September.
But even that time frame doesn’t look easy: Lawmakers are only in session for 12 days that month and will be working overtime to try to weed out a host of controversial spending bills that are sure to divide the party.
Meanwhile, in Trump’s inner circle, frustration with McCarthy boils. The former president and his team think the speaker should have supported him months ago, and are confused that he didn’t. Recently, McCarthy told the Trump team that he can not support Trump, as he wants to appear neutral as the House clears his name on impeachment.
But Trump’s team will only accept that excuse for so long. And if McCarthy doesn’t hold the vote soon, they warn, there will be consequences.
This report first appeared in POLITICO playbook.