Rishi Sunak’s team insists it’s time to move on with the Westminster soap.
Rishi Sunak is one of life’s optimists. But Boris Johnson’s psychodrama and rising interest rates brought palpable gloom to his Downing Street operation this week, according to people close to the British Prime Minister.
The conservative prime minister resembles Warren Buffett and tries to keep his cool by shutting himself off from the day-to-day market movements while looking for long-term benefits. That was not possible last week, according to ministers who spoke to Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity.
That comes amid a damning report that found former Tory Prime Minister Johnson deliberately and repeatedly misled Parliament over the “Partygate” scandal, against a backdrop of turmoil in the UK mortgage market as providers scrap existing deals in anticipation of rising prices. interest rates – which means more pain for homeowners.
Some senior Conservatives fear that the events of recent days have further closed their already narrow path to victory in the next general election, due by the end of January 2025. Politically and economically, Sunak’s fortunes are going in the wrong direction and it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how he can escape the worst-case scenarios for each, a minister said.
Sunak’s team insists it’s time to move on from the Westminster soap, in which Johnson resigned from parliament ahead of the report on his behavior and lashed out at the Tory majority committee that wrote it.
But with a vote in the House of Commons on his sentence on Monday, the first hearings on the Covid inquiry on Tuesday and the Bank of England seeking a 13th consecutive rate hike on Thursday, that’s easier said than done.
The Tories have failed to heed the advice of their chief election strategist, Isaac Levido, to avoid distractions and focus on governing, a party planner said. The government has won the media narrative in just eight of the past 24 weeks, they said, marking a profusion of side issues from Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab’s resignation after it emerged he had abused his power for public sector strikes and poor performance in important policy areas. , they concluded.
An official said presenting a positive message to voters becomes impossible because the Tories are addicted to chaos.
Monday’s vote on the Johnson report and his sentence has the potential to show the Tory divisions again. To prevent the civil war with the former prime minister from worsening, the government has allowed Conservative MPs to abstain by staying away. A question remains as to how Sunak himself will vote.
“Politically, it is in his interest that a final judgment be made on Boris Johnson,” said Hannah White, director of the Institute for Government. The balance is between upsetting Johnson supporters and “exercising his authority,” she said.
Labor will use the vote to argue that Sunak is weak, afraid of Johnson and unwilling to protect norms in public life, a party official said. Polls conducted by YouGov this week showed that only 20% of voters think Sunak is in charge of his party, and 74% think the Tories are divided.
In the coming weeks, Downing Street will attempt a reset with a range of new policies and a possible realignment to promote younger faces, a government official said. Another said the government is planning a flurry of announcements, including on cross-channel immigration, investment zones and the departure of officials from London.
But resetting will be difficult. Johnson is starting a new Daily Mail column that will be closely watched for criticism of Sunak: the first late on Friday steered clear of political attacks. The Tories also face two special elections on July 20, both of which national polls say could lose.
Another Tory MP, Nadine Dorries, has yet to implement her plan to quit — which would precipitate a third special election. That could be in the fall, just as the Tories face their annual conference for another refresh.
Meanwhile, Tory MPs on the parliamentary committee that ruled against Johnson — and those who support the report — are being targeted for deselection by the right-wing grassroots Conservative Democratic Organization.
“The party is trying to move forward, but Boris is a difficult person to get out of,” Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and election analyst, told Bloomberg.
The problem is that the focus can then turn to the economy, which one minister said was much more worrying than mocking Johnson.
Sunak had previously hoped falling inflation and interest rates would mean he could cut personal and business taxes in the spring budget ahead of elections later in 2024.
But markets expect rates to cross 5.7% in early 2024, and the Treasury is increasingly concerned that they could hit 6% by February, people familiar with the matter said. That would add to the prospect of a recession in 2024, just as Britain prepares to go to the polls, they said.
The prime minister’s options are limited. There is no alternative to rate hikes to curb inflation, a government official said, adding that there would be no fiscal measures to subsidize mortgage payments as that would add to price pressures, and government finances are already tight.
Moreover, Sunak’s problems extend beyond the raw economy.
One of his top five promises to voters is to prevent asylum seekers from crossing the channel in small boats. Another is to reduce National Health Service waiting lists. But in the past 7 days, more than 1,500 people arrived in Britain by boat and doctors staged a three-day strike.
Until recently, Tory strategists argued that the timing of the election should depend on the economy and polls. Bad numbers on each would push the date back as far as possible. Now a new mindset is emerging. Rising chances of a recession in 2024, coupled with projections that inflation will fall by the end of this year, means a spring poll may be the least bad outcome, some argue.
Still, that would be an exercise in limiting the magnitude of defeat rather than realistically trying to win, one Tory said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is being published from a syndicated feed.)