CLIMATE WIRE | More than 61,000 people died as a result of Europe’s record-breaking heat wave last summer, scientists conclude. And that is probably an underestimate.
The figure just falls short of the 70,000 additional deaths that researchers attribute to another exceptional heat wave that swept Europe in 2003. That disaster helped raise awareness about the dangers of climate change and the continent’s general lack of heat action plans.
Yet the new findings suggest that in the two decades since, efforts to prepare for a warmer future and to protect the continent’s most vulnerable populations have fallen short.
Published Monday in the scientific journal Naturopathythe new study examined data from 35 European countries representing a total population of more than 543 million people. The researchers applied a special kind of statistical model to historical weather records from around the region, a technique that allowed them to track how the number of deaths rise and fall with temperature.
They then focused on 2022, the hottest summer on record in Europe.
It was a season of remarkable extremes. Across the continent, average weekly temperatures rose as much as 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. All-time temperature records fell like dominoes across the region. Wildfires started in Portugal, Spain, France and other countries.
Using their model, the researchers estimate that in the summer of 2022, 61,672 people died from heat-related causes in all 35 countries. These deaths were not equal. The elderly were more frail than the young, and women also died faster than men, in part because women made up a larger proportion of the elderly population.
Some regions were also more affected than others. The highest mortality rates occurred in Mediterranean countries, especially Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece.
These estimates are likely still underestimated, the researchers warn. The researchers used weekly temperature and mortality data, meaning the model didn’t necessarily account for shorter-term peaks in estrous cycles and associated deaths. The true number of heat-related deaths in 2022 was likely even higher.
The researchers also point out that the new findings cannot be directly compared to the 2003 estimates. That study used a different kind of methodology and also targeted only 16 European countries.
It was also another point in Earth’s climate history. Europe’s 2003 heat wave was then still an “exceptionally rare event,” the researchers note, even in the context of ongoing climate change.
“This exceptional nature highlighted the lack of prevention plans and the fragility of health systems to deal with climate-related emergencies,” lead study author Joan Ballester, a scientist at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, said in a statement.
In the years since, many European countries have made efforts to develop prevention plans aimed at educating and protecting vulnerable populations against extreme heat. Yet more than 61,000 people died in last year’s record-breaking heat event.
The study indicates that adaptation efforts over the past 20 years have been “largely insufficient” to prevent a spate of deaths during an extreme heat wave, the researchers warned.
“The rate of warming observed over the past decade highlights the urgent need to reevaluate and strengthen adaptation strategies,” they said.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.