The total duration of severe or greater clear air turbulence experienced by aircraft in transit … [+]
Ladies and gentlemen, we are about to experience more turbulence, maybe forever? Fasten your seatbelts and prepare for yet another potential impact of climate change: bumpier plane rides. It’s an obvious problem: an increase in the number of planes with obvious air turbulence over the past four decades. That is based on a study recently published in the scientific journal Geophysical Survey Letters which analyzed climate data from 1979 through 2020.
The study, conducted by a team from the University of Reading in the UK (Mark C Prosser, Paul D Williams, Graeme J Marlton and R. Giles Harrison), found a significant increase in the total duration of clear air turbulence experienced by flights at an average point over the North Atlantic. Slight or greater turbulence in clear skies increased over the course of a year from 466.5 hours in 1979 to 546.8 hours in 2020, an increase of 17%. The increase in moderate or greater clear air turbulence was even greater, going from 70.0 hours to 96.1 hours for a 37% increase. That was topped by the increase in severe or greater turbulence in clear skies, a 55% increase from 17.7 hours to 27.4 hours in that period. The research team also found the same in the continental US. They did find significant increases, albeit lesser increases, also in Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic.
Studies published in scientific journals Nature And Advances in atmospheric sciences have described how warmer air due to climate change has increased the ‘tug of war’ between the jet streams in the upper atmosphere and the lower atmosphere. This in turn has increased the amount of clear air turbulence. It’s called clear sky because you can’t see it easily. Pilot Stuart Walker describes the four different types of turbulence in the following video from The Wall Street Journal:
As Walker explained, clear air turbulence can be harder to avoid because, like a fart in the sky, it’s harder to dodge what you can’t see. Therefore, the increase in clear-air turbulence over time has likely led to bumpier and bumpier rides over the past four decades.
That is of course not good news. Few people will say, “Gosh, it would have been better if that ride had been bumpier,” assuming they’re talking about an airplane flight and not something else. The authors cited a 2003 estimate that turbulence was costing the airline industry about $200 million a year at the time. That number has probably increased significantly since then because of, you know, the whole inflation thing. This figure wasn’t super surprising, as turbulence can cause wear and damage to aircraft.
There are also the effects turbulence can have on airline passengers and crew members. This can range from minor problems such as temporary headaches, nausea, and flyaway toupees to more serious injuries that require medical attention and even hospitalization. Data on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) website. shows 34 passengers and 116 crew members sustained serious injuries due to turbulence from 2009 through 2022. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) defines a serious injury as “any injury that (1) requires the individual to be more than 48 hours of hospitalization, beginning within seven days from the date of injury; (2) results in a bone fracture (except simple fractures of fingers, toes, or nose); (3) causes severe bleeding, nerve, muscle or tendon damage; (4) includes any internal organ; or (5) involves second or third degree burns, or burns affecting more than five percent of the body surface.”
Of course, the best way to avoid problems with turbulence is to avoid turbulence in the first place. Improved flight and weather monitoring and sensing technology may help pilots navigate away from areas of turbulence. But it’s not like a plane can just go anywhere like Kanye West on a stage. With other planes in the sky, there’s only so much an airplane can change its flight patterns.
What can you do to avoid trouble from turbulence, assuming you’re not flying the plane yourself? It can certainly help to keep your seat belt on at all times when you are in your seat. Listening to pilots and flight attendants announcements can also help. When they announce upcoming turbulence, it’s probably not a good idea to schedule a 30 minute toilet break. Aside from ridiculous faucets, airplane bathrooms usually don’t have toilet seats with seat belts. So it can be a bit dangerous to sit in it when the plane is rocking. Times of turbulence are also not good times to look for your Justin Bieber doll in the luggage in your luggage compartment. Instead, try folding the paper napkin that comes with the peanuts and name it Baby.
Yes, we are clearly in more turbulent times these days. And with political and business leaders not doing nearly enough to address pollution and how it can contribute to climate change, expect the ride to get tougher.