Chris Pratt and Charlie Day voice Mario and Luigi in “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” from Universal and Illumination.
Universal
LOS ANGELES — It’s the billion-dollar question: Why are mega-blockbusters scarce this year?
Universals “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” is the only movie released in 2023 that has crossed the $1 billion mark at the global box office to date. It doesn’t look like another one is coming, even with some big titles on the calendar.
“If you gave 10 people a release schedule at the beginning of the year and said, ‘Out of all these movies, we’ve only made one billion dollars and you can choose which movie that will be?’ I don’t think anyone would have taken ‘The Super Mario Bros. Movie’ as the one,” said Mike Polydoros, CEO of movie theater marketing company PaperAirplane Media.
The lack of billion-dollar sellers marks a dramatic change in the industry. In the years before the Covid-19 pandemic, and even last year, there were multiple megahits that surpassed $1 billion in worldwide grosses.
The lack of these types of blockbusters in 2023 is particularly striking disney, featuring Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, and legacy fairytale franchises. While the studio is on track to become the box office ruler this year, it has had a series of misfires in recent months that have raised concerns that audience preferences are changing too quickly for Hollywood to adapt.
“Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” failed to entice audiences outside of the staunchest Marvel fans in February, grossing just $214.5 million domestically and less than $500 million worldwide. “Elemental,” which was released last month, currently has the second-lowest domestic gross of any Pixar film in the studio’s history, barely surpassing 2020’s “Onward,” when the box office was cut short by the pandemic.
At Disney’s Lucasfilm, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” which hits theaters June 30, is expected to struggle to recoup its nearly $300 million production budget. So far, it has grossed $122.1 million at the domestic box office and $221.4 million worldwide.
“Overall, I see Disney in a position that has been most anticipated to emerge from the pandemic and have undergone yet another leadership change,” said Shawn Robbins, principal analyst at BoxOffice.com. Those two hugely influential factors have reshaped the studio’s position in a number of ways, especially at the box office given the last decade when their top franchises and brand have been firing on all cylinders. That kind of momentum would never be sustainable without the occasional ebb and flood.”
Disney CEO Bob Iger told CNBC’s David Faber on Thursday that the company would cut back on its Marvel and Star Wars content as it tries to cut costs and rejuvenate its brands.
A bright spot for Disney has come in the form of James Gunn’s final bow at Marvel Studios. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” is the third highest-grossing domestic release so far this year, with $357.5 million. It falls just behind Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Gunn is now helping Warner Bros.’ DC Studios. lead discovery.
The third Guardians movie has raked in $834.2 million worldwide since its release in May, but is unlikely to reach the coveted billion dollar threshold.
Notably, Disney’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” generated more than $1 billion in global ticket sales by 2023, but because it was released in 2022, it doesn’t count as a billion-dollar movie for this year.
“The billion dollar club looks set to become even more exclusive in 2023,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “Despite countless high-profile titles featuring some of the biggest movie brands and franchises in the movie business, this year’s crop so far has not had the global footprint or overall market dominance to cross the $1 billion mark in what a highly competitive global film market.”
Top grossing films of 2023 worldwide
- “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Universal) — $1.34 billion
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Disney) — $834.2 million
- “Fast X” (universal) – $702.8 million
- “Full River Red” (EDKO Films) – $647.8 million
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony) — $643.5 million
- “The Wandering Earth 2” (China Film Group Corporation) — $585.5 million
- “The Little Mermaid” (Disney) — $542.9 million
- “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” (Disney) — $471.3 million
- “Lost In The Stars” (Alibaba Pictures) – $ 428.5 million
- “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — $432.5 million
* This list does not include movies released in 2022 that generated ticket sales in 2023.
The Chinese market, in particular, has been a major driver of previous multibillion-dollar box office successes, but the region has been more selective about which Hollywood films are allowed to be screened in the country. China has also developed its own lucrative film market.
For example, most Marvel movies released before the pandemic saw 15% to 22% of total ticket sales from China. In the wake of the pandemic, only a handful of these comic book movies have hit screens in the country, and those that have have seen significantly fewer receipts.
The first two Ant-Man movies, released in 2015 and 2018, generated about 20% of ticket sales from China. Meanwhile, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” saw only 8% of tickets sold in China.
“Overall, China’s evolution into a market that can no longer be counted on to deliver massive blockbuster performances by some films and franchises that used to do so leaves a gap that may be too large to fill in the short term,” Robbins said.
A dry spell
Lower Chinese ticket sales coupled with a slower-than-expected return of domestic moviegoers have hampered major blockbusters in 2023, leading to fewer billion-dollar movies.
Over the past decade, the number of global billion-dollar earners has increased significantly, with Disney accounting for most of the chart-topping titles. In fact, the studio has released at least a billion dollars every year since 2014 through 2019, when there were seven billion dollar movies.
It didn’t produce a billion-dollar movie in 2020 or 2021 due to pandemic restrictions, but 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” was over $2 billion.
“Since 2019 was an anomaly on the high side, I think 2023 could be considered an anomaly the other way around,” said PaperAirplane’s Polydoros. “As they say with testing, throw out the highest and lowest and go from there. And I think the same theory applies to the overall box office as a whole.”
Polydoros’ sentiment was echoed by numerous box office analysts who spoke to CNBC. They noted that while many Disney releases have fallen short of expectations, the studio remains a strong contender at the domestic and global box office.
“Disney is unlikely to have a $1 billion global artist this year,” Dergarabedian said. “But, to be fair, ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’, ‘The Little Mermaid’, ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ and ‘Elemental’ have collectively made more than $2 billion worldwide.”
Still on top
Despite lukewarm results from the typically stalwart Disney, the studio has generated more domestic ticket sales than any other studio so far this year.
Through June, Disney releases represent 30% of all domestic ticket sales, or $1.3 billion, according to data from Comscore.
The studio also has four of the top 10 highest-grossing domestic film broadcasts to date this year.
Top-grossing domestic films to date in 2023
- “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Universal) — $573.7 million
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony) — $357.6 million
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Disney) — $ 357.5 million
- “The Little Mermaid” (Disney) – $ 289.2 million
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” (Disney) — $ 283 million
- “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” (Disney) — $214.5 million
- “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — $187.1 million
- “Creed III” (MGM) – $156.2 million
- “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount) — $146.8 million
- “Fast X” (universal) – $145.9 million
“As always, it comes down to the content,” says Polydoros.
It remains to be seen whether upcoming Disney releases, such as “Haunted Mansion”, “The Marvels” or “Wish”, will be able to generate the billion dollar benchmark amount, but a diverse slate bodes well for it company.
“2024 looks more promising on several fronts, and their original animated film, ‘Wish,’ could be a huge hit later this year if it lives up to its potential with the audiences that helped make the ‘Frozen’ franchise so successful. series,” Robbins said.
Upcoming Disney releases
- “Haunted House” – July 28
- “Holiday Friends 2” – August 25
- “Poor Things” – Sept. 8
- “A Haunting in Venice” – Sept. 15
- “The Creator” — September 29
- “The Marvels” – Nov. 10
- “Next Goal Wins” — November 17
- “Wish” – November 22
- “Magazine Dreams” — December 8
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.